Staunton, September 9 — Alyaksandr Lukashenka has sought Russian assistance to combat the Belarusian people by suggesting to Moscow that unless it sends him assistance to crush the demonstrators, Russia will soon face something similar in its own streets because the Americans will organize something similar there.
That argument may or may not work, 7×7blogger Igor Olin says; but one thing is sure: If Moscow repeats the methods of “the Belarusian cockroach,” then a Minsk scenario will become inevitable” in Russia – with only this difference: the Kremlin won’t have anyone to turn to (7×7-journal.ru/posts/2020/09/09/kak-izbezhat-belorusskogo-scenariya-kotoryj-lukashenko-prorochit-rossii).
After 26 years of misrule by Lukashenka, “the Belarusian people are showing that they are people,” that they can’t be kept in line by “murders, beatings, tortures, insults or illegality.” They are going to take their country back because they have shown “their unattainable moral superiority.”
Lukashenka recognizes what is happening and has changed his tune in Moscow, arguing that if Russia doesn’t help him stop the revolution in Belarus, the Kremlin will be confronted by something similar because the problem has not arisen because of the Belarusians but because of the Americans, whose “main target” remains Russia.
“Undoubtedly, Lukashenka is right when he points to the threat of ‘a Belarusian scenario’ for out country,” Olin says. But “the United States has nothing to do with it.” Instead, in Russia as in Belarus, the actions of the government in discrediting elections, ignoring international observers, violating the law, and failing to listen to the people.
“Repeat the methods of the Belarusian cockroach,” he continues, “and the Minsk scenario will become inevitable, with only this exception” – Moscow won’t have anyone to ask for propaganda and soldiers to keep it in place. (emphasis supplied)
At least at present, “it is possible to prevent this scenario in Russia,” Olin says, by “restricting the appetites of those on top and developing the economy in the interests of society, returning democratic procedures to political life, forgetting about new terms for the current president, observing constitutional provisions on the rights and freedoms of citizens, aand trying to lie less.”
So far, however, the Kremlin hasn’t made that turn and its policies toward Belarus are “shameful” and short-sighted because at a minimum, they will turn the Belarusian people against Moscow and threaten to lead to a break with Russia “analogous to the Ukrainian one,” Olin continues.
But it is clear that an even greater danger may be that the Kremlin will continue to turn the Russian people against itself.
Window on Eurasia — New Series